Our outlook in brief:

  • Global growth: It’s likely to stay lower for longer as we do not anticipate a significant reversal of the tariff escalation or a meaningful resolution to broader trade and geopolitical tensions.
  • Inflation: Across much of the developed world, inflation is likely to remain below central bank targets. Persistent structural factors have been pushing down some prices while inflation expectations have fallen short of most policy targets, implying increasing doubts about the effectiveness of monetary policy.
  • The financial markets: We expect returns over the next decade to be modest at best. While our equity outlook has improved, owing to mildly more favorable valuations, the chance of a large drawdown in the near term remains elevated. We expect fixed income returns to be lower given the decline we’ve seen in yields over the past year, but high-quality bonds will remain a key portfolio diversifier.

Read the full report containing our global economic outlook and our thoughts on inflation, monetary policy, and the implications for investors.

 

Notes:

All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.